Order Only: private message to Siz and Ev

[alt_jeremy]

Right. Shared your thoughts last night with Cecelia, Siz, on those scenario calculations and analysis Ev did. The bit you pointed out with that star, Antares -- if it makes that much of a difference to the locational magics, especially considering alignments, then the analysis is all pointing one way, yeah?

Ev, Cecelia was really impressed with the scope of what you did.

Comments

[alt_evelyn]

The replacement scenario is right out, isn't it? I could tell when I was doing iterations that the odds just weren't in our favour for that one. It kept coming up weird.

And you're sure that it checks out, that I've run them properly?

Do you need me to factor in the Anteres datapoint and re-run the other two scenarios? I don't know if there's quite enough time to get both done, but I could possibly manage the one we want to do the most, just to make doubly sure it works out the way we think it will.

And remind me. The centre scenario is looking slightly better than making a new spoke? Sometimes I got sort of lost in the weeds with those two, because the replacement one was so clearly different. Forest for the trees, all that.

[alt_sinistra]

I think it might do more good, if you want to run other variations, to see if we can figure out the best place for a centre addition might be.

I keep going back and forth about the security issues versus the optimal location based on calculation.

(And if Cecilia's right about them being polarity compass points, there's no way to balance it that way - we'd need to put the ninth stone off the coast of Grimsby, which makes no sense. But we could maybe do something geographically, in the center of the protected space, as it were.)

But clearly, somewhere we could Fidelius would be best, and that's a bit limiting.

[alt_evelyn]

And it'd have to be on a central ley, too, of course. A good strong one.

It helps that they wouldn't be looking for something in the middle -- they'd probably focus security on the perimeter instead.

[alt_sinistra]

True enough. Though they could follow the leys if they got the idea to look.

Right. Calculations keep making my head spin, and I hate being unscientific and using instinct, but I keep being told to trust my instincts for complex magics.

I keep looking at this spot near Stanfree and Boslover (bit west of Sherwood Forest.) That might have complications - something for Alice to ask Will Davidson, don't know who's near there who might be at risk. But they might also know a good location, too, for the stone.

But that's both on the ley between Grimsby and St David's, and the one that runs from Cumbria to Dover, and it's more or less the right middle, if you know what I mean?

[alt_jeremy]

Get Vector started sometime on the part intuition plays in higher Arithmantic discovery, yeah?

Verification, of course. But the leap is sometimes the way to find where to look.

[alt_evelyn]

And if the energy is to be roughly spread out like we think it will for the centre scenario, if it's a mile off of direct centre, it shouldn't impact things too terribly, I wouldn't think.

[alt_evelyn]

It'll be absorbed, I mean,

[alt_sinistra]

That, yes.

And the theory goes that the major leys can take more backwash of energies and disperse them, and so on. (Well, most of the theories. There's a half-dozen dissenting academic arguments, like you'd expect.)

[alt_evelyn]

It'd be a bit like a wave, wouldn't it? Or ripples in a tide pool.

Oooooh.

[alt_sinistra]

I can lend you more books, if you like. Or wait, if they'd be too distracting, just yet.

[alt_evelyn]

After we're done, perhaps? And we see what ends up happening, in which order? So I can wrap my head around it. I've just been focusing so much on permutations, I'm not sure broader theory would make as much sense to me right now.

We'll have to ask for a tonne of our people to be out and about to take readings, but it'd be worth it, I think.

[alt_sinistra]

You ask when you'd like them, then.

And quite a lot of readings, yes. We should sort out a list by priority, really.

[alt_sinistra]

Oh, I've heard that potted speech. Regularly, trust me.

(I've always been better at the intuitive leap than the calculations. Very glad you two have handled most of those, I don't trust not flipping numbers around in my head these days.)

Tosha's kept

Funny how you learn things from the oddest places, mind.

[alt_sinistra]

Evelyn - if you're up for one more set of calculations, do you want me to chart out that spot for you (and I'll look and see if there's more that might also work.)

Tosha will be up here after supper, but before then or right before my evening classes, or tomorrow once I'm awake, whichever's handy.

[alt_evelyn]

Yes. Tonight'd be fine. I can come up and help you set up for class after we're done.

[alt_sinistra]

That would be very kind.

If you come up at eleven fifteen or so, that would give us time. (If that's not too late for you, mind.)

[alt_evelyn]

Of course not.

I'm more of a night person anyways, and I've got rounds right before, so I'll be out and about already.

[alt_sinistra]

So few people appreciate that time of night. Good.

If we're still talking - chances are we will be - just knock. I've made a note to warn him you'll be coming up to help.

[alt_jeremy]

We both looked them over. They seem quite solid.

Cecelia went over the replacement scenario with a fine-tooth comb twice. The rise in risk was a bit startling, but if this is right, well then. Can't go strengthening the wards when we're trying for the opposite. Or blowing the Protectorate up trying to save it. (We were quite glad to see that risk drop, small as it was before!)

Centre scenario does have the edge. When we talk with Alice and factor in logistics of accomplishing the physical part of the plan, centre scenario will probably take the snitch.

Good thing we had all that mapping data, yeah?

[alt_evelyn]

I don't think I've ever been as happy when the readings from September came through and fit the model.

And yes, we certainly have enough mapping data to work from.

[alt_sinistra]

Antares, yes. And really, it's not the Neptune/Uranus/Pluto bit that bothers me for the planets as much as Mars being in there.

All sorts of unpredictable reinforcements.

The more I've looked at Evelyn's calculations, the more I think just trying to replace it is a bad risk, unless someone's seeing something I'm missing.

(Entirely possible. You've both done excellent work on this, and Cecilia, long before I knew a thing about it.)

[alt_evelyn]

Yes. I mean, it seemed perfectly reasonable at first, to just put the non-working one where the working one was, but honestly, it just didn't pan out at all.

It's like putting it there would run the risk of just flipping the non-working one back to working instead or something.

[alt_jeremy]

Yeah. The split-signal-and-surge model is much stronger than I expected.

[alt_jeremy]

Whole thing's fascinating, really. Wish we had time to follow up some of the implications.

[alt_sinistra]

It seems very backwards to be doing the practical testing before the theoretical's properly understood.

Needs must, though.

[alt_jeremy]

True enough.

Hope the practical testing wins us the chance to investigate the theoretical properly some day.

[alt_sinistra]

My research mentor was always very clear that astronomy was made to be used, and that if you weren't practical about it, what good was it?

Magic, too.

But yes. If we manage a world where there's leisure for exploration, as opposed to just not-dying, I've a long list of things I'd love more time with. This very much among them.

(I found a fascinating older text - I mean, about 16th century - that mostly isn't relevant, but some of the applications might be, if we were doing something entirely different about protections, I mean.)